by Calculated Risk on 5/11/2025 08:16:00 AM

The first graph shows the unemployment rate by four levels of education (all groups are 25 years and older) through April 2025. Note: This is an update to a post from several years ago.

Unfortunately, this data only goes back to 1992 and includes only three recessions (the stock / tech bust in 2001, and the housing bust/financial crisis, and the 2020 pandemic). Clearly education matters with regards to the unemployment rate, with the lowest rate for college graduates at 2.5% in April, and highest for those without a high school degree at 6.2% in April.

All four groups were generally trending down prior to the pandemic, and all are close to pre-pandemic levels now.

Click on graph for larger image.

Note: This says nothing about the quality of jobs - as an example, a college graduate working at minimum wage would be considered "employed".

This brings up an interesting question: What is the composition of the labor force by educational attainment, and how has that been changing over time?

Here is some data on the U.S. labor force by educational attainment since 1992.

Currently, almost 67 million people (25 and over) in the U.S. labor force have a bachelor's degree or higher.  This is almost 45% of the labor force, up from 26.2% in 1992.

This is the only category trending up.  "Some college", "high school" and "less than high school" have been trending down.

Based on recent trends, probably half the labor force will have at least a bachelor's degree sometime next decade (2030s).

Some thoughts: Since workers with bachelor's degrees typically have a lower unemployment rate, rising educational attainment is probably a factor in pushing down the overall unemployment rate over time.

Also, I'd guess more education would mean less labor turnover, and that education is a factor in lower weekly claims.

A more educated labor force is a positive for the future.

Weekly Schedule

by Calculated Risk on 5/10/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May 2025

• ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool

• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in April

• Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 5/10/2025 08:11:00 AM

The key reports this week are April CPI, Retail Sales and Housing Starts.

For manufacturing, April Industrial Production, and the May NY and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released.

----- Monday, May 12th -----
2:00 PM: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices for April.

----- Tuesday, May 13th -----
6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for April.

8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for April from the BLS. The consensus is for 0.3% increase in CPI (up 2.4% YoY), and a 0.3% increase in core CPI (up 2.8% YoY).

11:00 AM: NY Fed: Q1 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit

----- Wednesday, May 14th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

----- Thursday, May 15th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims of 230 thousand, up from 228 thousand last week.

8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for April are scheduled to be released.  The consensus is for 0.1% increase in retail sales.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

8:30 AM: The Producer Price Index for April from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in PPI, and a 0.3% increase in core PPI.

8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for May. The consensus is for a reading of -7.1, up from -8.1.

8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for May. The consensus is for a reading of -8.5, up from -26.4.

8:40 AM: Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Framework Review, At the Thomas Laubach Research Conference, Washington, D.C.

9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for April.

This graph shows industrial production since 1967.

The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to be unchanged at 77.8%.

10:00 AM: The May NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 40 up from 39 last month.  Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

----- Friday, May 16th -----
8:30 AM ET: Housing Starts for April.

This graph shows single and total housing starts since 2000.

The consensus is for 1.360 million SAAR, up from 1.324 million SAAR in March.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for May).

by Calculated Risk on 5/09/2025 07:10:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.

Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data."  So, I'm no longer tracking hospitalizations.

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Deaths per Week	337✅	393	≤3501
1my goals to stop weekly posts. 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths. ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported since Jan 2023.

Although weekly deaths met the original goal to stop posting in June 2023 (low of 314 deaths), I've continued to post since deaths were above the goal again - and I'll continue to post until weekly deaths are once again below the goal for several weeks.

Weekly deaths are steadily decreasing following the winter pickup and are nearing the lows of last June.

And here is a graph I'm following concerning COVID in wastewater as of May 8th:

This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.  This is moving towards the lows last May.

Nationally COVID in wastewater is "Low".

by Calculated Risk on 5/09/2025 02:27:00 PM

Plenty of data next week!  Note that the Blue Chip consensus is wide - and currently around 1%.

From the Atlanta Fed:

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.3 percent on May 8, up from 2.2 percent on May 6. After this morning’s wholesale trade report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to annualized second-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.46 percentage points to -0.43 percentage points. [May 8th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 5/09/2025 11:00:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May 2025

A brief excerpt:

This 2-part overview for mid-May provides a snapshot of the current housing market.

Right now, the key story for existing homes is that inventory is increasing sharply, and sales are essentially flat compared to last year. That means prices will be under pressure (although there will not be a huge wave of distressed sales).

Yesterday, Realtor.com reported that there were “more than 1 million homes for sale last week, crossing this threshold for the first time since December 2019”.
...
Since inventory has increased sharply and sales are flat, a key for house prices is to watch months-of-supply. The following graph shows months-of-supply since 2017 using data from the NAR. Note that months-of-supply is higher than the previous 8 years!

Months-of-supply was at 4.0 months in March compared to 3.8 months in March 2019.

Inventory would probably have to increase to 5 1/2 to 6 months of supply to see national price declines.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 5/09/2025 08:12:00 AM

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission.

Recent shifts in U.S. policies on trade and immigration have introduced volatility in financial markets and heightened uncertainty for firms. The ultimate outcomes and impacts of these policy changes remain unclear. Nevertheless, U.S. rail volumes have thus far remained stable, and many core economic indicators continue to signal underlying resilience. Railroads have long adapted to changing conditions, a legacy of resilience that continues today.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This table from the AAR shows the year-over-year change in carloads by category.

U.S. railroads originated 1.13 million total carloads in April 2025, up 6.2% (65,524 carloads) over April 2024. That’s the largest year-over-year percentage gain in 16 months and the third largest in nearly four years. Carloads averaged 225,569 per week in April—slightly below March, but otherwise the highest since October 2024, with gains in 13 of 20 categories tracked by AAR. Through the first four months of 2025, total carloads were up 1.8% (67,282 carloads) over the same period last year, with 11 of 20 carload categories seeing gains.
emphasis added

And on intermodal:

U.S. rail intermodal traffic, which is not included in carload counts, totaled 1.36 million containers and trailers in April 2025, up 7.4% (93,244 units) over April 2024. Weekly intermodal volume averaged 272,300 units in April 2025. The only April with higher intermodal volume was April 2021. In fact, April 2021 holds the all-time intermodal record for any month, averaging 290,955 units per week. Year-to-date intermodal volume in 2025 through April was 4.90 million units, up 8.1% (365,456 units) over 2024 and the second highest ever for the first four months of a year (again behind 2021). Intermodal volume closely tracks port activity, making it a bellwether for international trade trends.

As yet, there is no apparent impact on carloads and intermodal from policy changes.

by Calculated Risk on 5/08/2025 07:25:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Move Higher After Trade Deal

Mortgage rates moved back up to the higher levels seen earlier this week after the official announcement of a trade deal between the U.S. and the U.K.
...
In the bigger picture, today's mortgage rate increase is unremarkable--sort of average--and it leaves the rate index well below the early April highs, despite being well above the range seen during the month of March.

by Calculated Risk on 5/08/2025 01:39:00 PM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For May, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 30.6% YoY, but still down 16.3% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

 Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 31.1% YoY.

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending May 3, 2025

• Active inventory climbed 31.1% year-over-year

The number of homes actively for sale remains on a strong upward trajectory, now 31.1% higher than this time last year. This represents the 78th consecutive week of annual gains in inventory. There were more than 1 million homes for sale last week, crossing this threshold for the first time since December 2019.

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—rebounded, rising 9.3% year-over-year

New listings picked up last week, rising 9.3% compared to a year ago. The momentum from earlier this spring is still going strong, pointing to a lively market heading into late spring and early summer. Last week boasted the highest number of new listings since mid-2022.

• The median list price was up 0.9% year-over-year

Home prices posted another slight gain this week, with the national median listing price rising 0.9% year-over-year.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. 

Inventory was up year-over-year for the 78th consecutive week.  

New listings were the highest since 2022.

Median list prices are up slightly year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 5/08/2025 10:41:00 AM

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 3 May

The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 3 May. ...

27 April through 3 May 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 65.8% (+1.8%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$164.33 (+2.2%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$108.06 (+4.1%)

Performance growth was lifted early in the week on the positive side of the Passover calendar shift.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking below both last year and is close to the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will mostly move sideways until the summer travel season.  We will likely see a hit to occupancy during the summer months due to less international tourism.